S&P 500 Historical Data: PE, CAPE, Div Yield
S&P 500 Historical Data: P/E and CAPE ratio, Dividend Yield, Prices and Earnings from 1871 till the present.
Current Market Valuation Comparison
| Metric | Current Value | Historical Mean | vs. Mean | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.13 | 16.20 | +92.2% | Significantly overvalued |
| CAPE Ratio | 40.54 | 17.33 | +133.9% | Extremely overvalued |
| Dividend Yield | 1.13% | 4.22% | -73.2% | Significantly low income yield |
Key Insights
- P/E Ratio: Current earnings vs. stock price
- CAPE Ratio: 10-year inflation-adjusted earnings vs. stock price
- Dividend Yield: Annual income as % of price
Current Market Summary
As of Jan 2026, the S&P 500 at 6,926.55 is exuberantly priced. Market participants are paying a premium far beyond historical norms for each dollar of earnings—a level rarely followed by positive returns. As Keimling (2016) demonstrated in “Predicting Stock Market Returns Using the Shiller CAPE,” such elevated valuations (CAPE > 30) have historically preceded subdued, often negative, long-term returns.